Lucara Diamond Corp. has just lowered its revenue forecast for 2024 after struggling to recover the large, valuable diamonds that usually boost its sales. With weaker demand and fewer high-value stones coming out of its Karowe mine, the company is now predicting revenue of $160 to $180 million—down from the initial estimate of $220 to $250 million.
What Happened to the Big Stones?
Lucara says its revised revenue guidance reflects a reduced production of HB Antwerp-qualifying "specials"—the large stones over 10.8 carats that usually command top prices. This, combined with a weaker global rough-diamond market, has led to a drop in sales through its premium channels.
Revenue Takes a Hit—What's Next for Lucara?
The company reported a 21% drop in third-quarter revenue to $44.3 million, as fewer large diamonds were sold through its offtake agreement with HB. Sales from this channel fell from $38.4 million last year to just $27.8 million in the third quarter of 2024. Even though total sales volume grew by 4% to 116,221 carats, profits plummeted from $11.7 million a year ago to just $200,000.
Can Lucara Bounce Back with Underground Expansion?
Lucara is pressing ahead with its underground expansion project, although it has scaled back spending from $100 million to $80 million, deferring some costs to 2025. The miner remains hopeful, having recovered 244 special-sized stones during the quarter—including three diamonds over 300 carats.
Is Lucara's plan to dig deeper going to pay off? Or will the search for the next mega-diamond prove even harder than expected? Only time will tell, but one thing is clear: the diamond game is changing, and Lucara is trying to keep up.